My Google Page Rank

IMF lowers PHL growth forecast, raises need for higher public spending in ’12

PDFPrintE-mail

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its 2011 and 2012 growth forecast for the Philippines due to lower domestic output and negative external developments.

IMF now projects a 3.7 percent growth, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), for the country this year, from 4.7 percent last September. For 2012, the GDP forecast is now at 4.2 percent from 4.9 percent previously.

“(The cut was due to) a combination of GDP development and the negative global environment,” IMF Article IV Consultation Mission chief Vivek Arora said in a briefing Monday.

Growth in the third quarter this year further slowed to 3.2 percent, a bit higher than the downwardly revised 3.1 percent for the second quarter.
Arora said growth can be boosted next year by increasing government spending, which was low in the earlier part of the year on account of stricter rules on government processes.

He said monetary policy in the country remained supportive of growth and what should be focused on was the fiscal policy.

“The under-spending this year gives the government the flexibility to substantially expand spending next year while still hitting the 2.6 percent debt to GDP target,” he said.

He said that the IMF latest outlook for the country was a low external support and more on domestic demand.

“The outlook in global economy is sluggish. We don’t expect much support on external demand next year…We feel that domestic demand will offset the effects of external demand next year,” he said.

As of last October, budget gap stood at P74.25 billion, 72.53 percent lower than the P270.30 billion during the same period last year and way below the P300 billion ceiling set for this year.

Revenues in the first 10 months this year rose to P1.12 trillion, 12.87 percent higher than year-ago’s P993.22 billion while expenditures reached P1.2 trillion, 5.40 percent lower than year-ago’s P1.26 trillion.

For next year, Arora said there was a need for “some additional efforts” to raise revenues and backs efforts like improvements in the excise tax and reduction in tax incentives.

“Over the medium term, the planned fiscal consolidation should strengthen the ability of the budget to respond to future shocks…The authorities’ emphasis on strengthening tax compliance is appropriate and the Fund continues to support these efforts with technical assistance. In addition, it will be important to reform excises, rationalize fiscal incentives, and broaden tax base,” the IMF said in a statement.

The IMF believes that monetary policy in the country “has responded well to changing circumstances.”

Arora does not see any need for policy easing at this point but pointed out that there is a need to adjust when need arises.

"Pause in monetary tightening has been justified,” he said.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) policy-making Monetary Board (MB) last Dec. 1 again kept central bank’s policy rates for five consecutive MB meetings as inflation is expected to stay within the three to five percent target until 2013 and on back of expected weak domestic and global growth.

To date, BSP’s overnight borrowing rate is still at 4.5 percent and the overnight lending rate at 6.5 percent.

Relatively, IMF expects inflation to “remain within the target range this year and next and the balance of payments to stay in surplus.”

Rate of price increases in the first 10 months this year averaged at 4.5 percent after last November’s inflation rate slowed to 4.7 percent from this year’s peak of 5.3 percent.

The government’s inflation target for this year until 2014 is a range between three to five percent.

IMF said the Philippines, like other countries in the region, was affected by the negative external environment “but macroeconomic conditions remain generally sound.”

It said that “the authorities’ policy management was supporting confidence and thas built up room for a strong response should further negative shocks occur.”

“The key challenge now is to navigate through the period of global uncertainty to maintain macroeconomic stability while building the foundations for faster and more inclusive growth,” it said.

By Joann Santiago




Related news items:
Newer news items:
Older news items:

Add comment


Security code
Refresh

THE SPIDER MOVES OF JOWIE

25 Sep 2017 Hits:54 Be the first to comment!

Este si Jowie J. Natak , 44 años de edad , 5’ 9 el altor , anak di Nasal Natak y Remedios Jamie Natak que ta esta na Malayal Sibuco , Zamboanga Del Norte  . Su hermano y Hermana si Rosie, Jayson, su mujer si Lady Divina Buenagracia Natak y tiene sila 2 anak si Princess y Prince Natak . Este el su istoria … Ya principia yo juga basketball na edad 14 años na mio provincial na Malayal Sibuco, Zamboanga Del Norte . Na dimiyo 3rd year na high school ya queda iyo player de SCC , Zamboanga City del 1989-1990 . El Southern City Colleges el Interschool Champion poreso yan represent kame el Ciudad de Zamboanga na Regional Meet na [...] Read more

Prev Next Page:

BAP REGIONAL DIRECTOR R-9... REV. FR. JONATHAN DUCA

24 Sep 2017 Hits:60 Be the first to comment!

Este el istoria porcaosa del nuevo posicion que ya dale con Rev. Fr. Jonathan Duka y Omar Bowon, el dos cabesa pensante, que ya delega canila cuando ya atende sila [...] Read more


FAST & THE FURIOUS… STREETTUNERS AUTOCROSS TEAM ZAMBOANGA

22 Sep 2017 Hits:69 Be the first to comment!

Este clase de desportes el Motor Sports – Autocross /Drifting                               El presidente del organizacion si [...] Read more


Mini-grocery loses P.5M to robbers

20 Sep 2017 Hits:106 Be the first to comment!

The Sta. Maria Police (Police Station 7) is now conducting a deeper probe on the robbery of a mini-grocery in Barangay Tumaga, this city, where the sum of P500,000 was [...] Read more


Three hurt including a minor in vehicular incident

20 Sep 2017 Hits:98 Be the first to comment!

Three persons including a minor were injured after they were hit by a motorcycle along MCLL Highway, Barangay Quiniput, this city, last Saturday. Police identified the injured victims as Floribel Perez [...] Read more


SLIPPERY MOVES OF… FLORA

20 Sep 2017 Hits:81 Be the first to comment!

Este si Flora May S. Ceno, ta llama conele Flora , 20 años de edad, residente de Poblacion, Lakewood Zamboanga Del Sur . Su mayores si Rolando M. Ceno y [...] Read more


FIGHTER’S VISION... GHEN YAN

17 Sep 2017 Hits:96 Be the first to comment!

Este si Ghen Yhan Cabayaruz Berdon , su palayao “yan Yan”, 15 años de edad 5’4” el altor, anak di Agbayani D. Berdon y Genalyn Cabayacruz Berdon , hermano  si [...] Read more


ENDURANCE DASHER … JEK

15 Sep 2017 Hits:115 Be the first to comment!

Este si Jeric Sabungan Gaceta , su palayao “Jek”, 19 años de edad, 5’6” el altor , residente de Barangay Camino Nuevo , Ciudad de Zamboanga . Su mayores si [...] Read more


ROOKIE VISION… PETER

13 Sep 2017 Hits:118 Be the first to comment!

Este si Peter Edward Patual Ignacio , ta llama conele “Peter”, 18 años de edad, 6’3” el altor, residente de Navarro Court Ext, Sta Maria, Ciudad de Zamboanga . Su [...] Read more


BEST OF THE BEST - SILVER…..JELSEA

12 Sep 2017 Hits:112 Be the first to comment!

Este si Jelsea Nicole Batayen Arboiz , ta llama conele “Jelsea“, 13 años de edad , anak di Roger P. Arboiz y Marites A. Batayen , su hermana si Julie [...] Read more


UPRISING GOLDEN ACHIEVER… NICA

10 Sep 2017 Hits:132 Be the first to comment!

Este si Veronica Padillo Sagrado , ta llama conele na palayao “Nica” , 13 años de edad , anak di Ferdinand Elloreg Sagrado  y Marilyn Padillo Sagrado , su hermana [...] Read more


Factory worker nabbed for illegal drugs

07 Sep 2017 Hits:163 Be the first to comment!

A worker at a canning factory was conducted to Police Station 9 after he was caught in possession of a sachet of alleged shabu while entering the premises of Universal [...] Read more


Student stabbed in street brawl

07 Sep 2017 Hits:148 Be the first to comment!

A grade 9 student was rushed to the hospital after he was stabbed during a brawl in Sitio Pasay, Barangay San Roque, this city, Tuesday. Police Station 7, investigator-on-case from the [...] Read more


PANTHER MOVES… VEN VEN

07 Sep 2017 Hits:120 Be the first to comment!

Este si Kaven Repollo Carandang , su palayao “ven ven “, 14 años de edad ,residente de MalasigaTalungan , Barangay San Roque , Ciudad de Zamboanga . Su mayores si [...] Read more


MUAY THAI BRAWLER…. IAN

06 Sep 2017 Hits:128 Be the first to comment!

Este si Prince Ian Cabayacruz Berdon , ta llama conele “Ian”, 14 años de edad, anak di Agbayani D. Berdon y Genalyn Cabayacruz Berdon . Su hermano si Ghen Yhan [...] Read more


It’s “Business as usual” in ZamPen

06 Sep 2017 Hits:172 Be the first to comment!

Despite the extension of military rule in Mindanao, business remains vibrant in Zamboanga Peninsula. Department of Trade and Industry-9 Regional Director Sitti Amina M. Jain said peace and order remains stable [...] Read more


Swedish national held for questioning

06 Sep 2017 Hits:183 Be the first to comment!

A Swedish National allegedly heading to Basilan Province was prevented from leaving Zamboanga City by personnel of the Philippine Coast Guard Zamboanga Station (PCGZS) on Sunday. A report coming from the [...] Read more


SEA GAMES MUAY THAI BRONZE… RYAN

03 Sep 2017 Hits:145 Be the first to comment!

El diaton Muay Thai Bronze medalist  si Ryan Tarang Jakiri , ta llama conele el “Pilipino assassin” , 25 años de edad, 5’8” el altor , casao cun May Libao [...] Read more


SEA GAMES PENCAK SILAT BRONZE ….JEFF

02 Sep 2017 Hits:141 Be the first to comment!

El diaton Pencak Silat Bronze medalist si Jefferson Rhey Abilay Loon , su palayao “Jeff”, 24 años de edad ,5’7” el altor , residente de Barangay San Roque , anak [...] Read more